Do any of you know of the economist David Rosenberg? Long-time readers of Boom2Bust.com know that Rosenberg, considered one of the best North American economists around, is one of our original “crash prophets” and called the current recession and crisis a long time before most of his colleagues. As a matter of fact, not only was Rosenberg correct about the recession, but his timing on the start of the downturn was only off by a few weeks. I wrote the following way back on November 12, 2007:

A runner-up in the October contest was chief North American economist David Rosenberg of Merrill Lynch. The Wall Street Journal is reporting in their MarketBeat Blog post today that Rosenberg is saying the U.S. economy may already be in a recession.

And here’s a post I dug up from July 17, 2008, which isn’t too far off from what some of his contemporaries are now warning about:

According to the Financial Post (Canada) from July 9, David Rosenberg, the chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch, is warning of the possibility of not one U.S. economic recession, but a series of them. The Post’s Jacqueline Thorpe wrote:

Rosenberg has consistently held one of the more pessimistic views on Wall Street, arguing the housing slump and credit crunch will exact a heavy toll on U.S. consumer spending. He believes the data will eventually show the recession started in January.

But he adds it’s not the peak-to-trough decline in real GDP that’s important but the duration. Trouble is, the duration could be Japanese-like (about a decade).

Just like Japan, he says a series of rolling recessions is possible for the next three to five years, making it extremely difficult to time the market. Japanese equities got trashed through the process. At the 1998 post-bubble lows, Japanese bank, construction, real estate and transport stocks were all down 80%, retail stocks were down 50%. The only place to hide was bonds, notes the bond bull.

Rosenberg told the Canadian publication:

We are nervous that we have ended up following in Japan’s footsteps due to the inept fiscal response to the problem. A temporary tax rebate from Uncle Sam to buy iPods tackles a real estate deflation and credit crunch as effectively as the LDP’s (Liberal Democratic Party) “solution” in the early 1990s to build bridges and pave river beds that nobody needed.

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So, what is Rosenberg, now chief economist and strategist at Toronto wealth management firm Gluskin Sheff, forecasting these days? From the CNBC website yesterday morning:

The stock market is still in danger of breaking through its March lows as the economy continues to struggle, economist David Rosenberg told CNBC.

An additional round of government stimulus is likely to have little more impact than “cushioning the blow” of unemployment that will “easily” break the post-World War II high of 10.8 percent in 1982, said Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff.

“Could we see a new low? Who’s to say that we couldn’t?” he said. “A lot’s going to depend on the economic outlook. I don’t think another fiscal package is going to save the day.”

Some of Rosenberg’s other points:

• The market is currently only half-way through a secular bear market that could last another nine years. “You’ve got to trade accordingly, because there’s going to be huge spasms and rallies along the way,” he said.
• Stocks have priced in an earnings level that probably won’t be achieved until 2012, posing more danger of a move lower.
• The gap between the so-called “U6″ unemployment rate, which entails virtually all jobless including part-time workers who want to work full-time, and the number the government releases is at its widest ever. That indicates that even when the outlook improves for companies they are likely to bring part-time workers to full-time status first before hiring new workers, which in itself indicates a protracted period of a high unemployment rate.
• Cutbacks at the state and local government levels as well as a massive reduction in household balance sheets pose further headwinds for the economy.

“There are secular changes taking place in the economy right now, and you really have to be braced for it,” he said.

http://www.boom2bust.com/2009/07/08/stock-bear-cycle-only-half-over-9-more-years-to-go/

posted here by Moishe Alexander, CFC Canadian Funding Corp CEO

Housing starts across British Columbia remained depressed in the first quarter of 2009, falling almost 70 per cent compared with the same quarter of 2008, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. reported Wednesday.

While housing starts ticked up slightly in March on a national basis, builders in B.C. started work on 2,517 new homes in the first three months compared with 8,532 in 2008.

“Developers and homebuilders in B.C. are starting fewer new homes in response to a well-supplied resale market and weaker housing demand,” Carol Frketich, Canada Mortgage and Housing’s regional economist for B.C., said in a news release.

The declines in starts ranged from almost 93 per cent in Kelowna, where builders started on 72 new homes compared with 985 in the first quarter last year, to 31 per cent in Nanaimo, where builders started on 170 new homes vs. 247 in the same months a year ago.

And the pace of new-housing construction slipped in March to a pace that would see builders across urban B.C. start work on 10,000 units in 2009, compared with a pace of 12,000 units seen in February.

In the Lower Mainland, Metro Vancouver saw starts fall by two-thirds, 1,829 units compared with 5,131 in the first quarter of 2008.

Across Metro Vancouver, West Vancouver saw the steepest drop in the first quarter at 92 per cent, with the Tri-Cities and Surrey not far behind at 91 per cent.

Delta was the only municipality to see an increase in housing starts. Builders there started work on 81 new housing units, an increase of 55 per cent in the first quarter from a year ago.

“The slowing housing starts trend that began in the last part of 2008 will continue,” Robyn Adamache, Canada Mortgage and Housing’s senior analyst for Metro Vancouver, said in a news release, also citing well-supplied resale markets and a growing inventory of unsold new homes as the reasons builders are holding off on new development.

Across Canada, home construction rose unexpectedly in March, led by Ontario and Quebec, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation said Wednesday.

There were 154,700 housing starts on an annualized basis during the month, up from a revised 136,100 units in February, the government agency said.

Many economists had expected housing starts to dip to 130,000 units in March.

“Higher multiple starts in Ontario and Quebec were the main contributors to the rise in new construction activity in March,” said Bob Dugan, CMHC’s chief economist. “While the multiples segment experienced the largest increase, the overall boost in starts was broad based, encompassing the singles segment as well.”

http://housing-analysis.blogspot.com/2009/04/from-vancouver-sun-housing-starts.html

reviewed by Moishe Alexander, CFC CEO